Lede
Backpack, a cryptocurrency exchange established by former personnel from Alameda Research and the defunct FTX, has officially announced its entry into the prediction market sector. Under the leadership of CEO Armani Ferrante, the company is introducing a new platform specifically designated as the Unified Prediction Portfolio. This move marks a significant expansion of the exchange’s service offerings as it seeks to innovate within the decentralized finance space. Currently, the platform has entered a private beta testing phase as it prepares for a broader rollout, with the initial testing phase operating on an invite-only basis.
Unlike many other offerings in the industry, this system is characterized as a native infrastructure where everything is tokenized and risk-profiled as a single, cohesive unit. Ferrante has clarified that the project is not intended to be a simple wrapper or interface for established platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Instead, it represents a proprietary effort to build an integrated system from the ground up. By launching this private beta, the exchange is focusing on the foundational elements of its trading engine, ensuring that the risk profiling and tokenization mechanisms function correctly before opening the doors to a wider user base.
Context
The landscape of prediction markets has become increasingly competitive as major crypto entities seek to capture user interest. In November 2025, Coinbase launched its own prediction market site through a strategic partnership with Kalshi, a major platform in the regulated space. Similarly, MetaMask has previously collaborated with Polymarket to facilitate prediction trading directly through its self-custodial wallet interface. Backpack enters this environment with a specific focus on capital efficiency and account unification, moving away from the partnership-based models seen elsewhere in the industry.
A primary objective of the Unified Prediction Portfolio is to allow users to deploy their capital across all of Backpack’s offerings without the traditional requirement of fragmenting their account balances. The fragmentation of funds has been a persistent hurdle for traders who wish to maintain multiple positions across different market types. Backpack’s architecture aims to solve this by providing a unified environment where capital can be used fluidly across different trades. By integrating prediction markets directly into its exchange ecosystem, Backpack is attempting to leverage its existing infrastructure to provide a more seamless experience than the integrations currently offered by competitors.
Impact
The technical impact of Backpack’s new platform centers on its ability to integrate disparate financial products into a single margin account. CEO Armani Ferrante has observed that prediction markets are often notoriously inefficient, largely due to the requirement that users lock up their funds for the entire duration of a specific event. This lack of flexibility often limits the potential returns and utility of the capital deployed by participants. To counter this, the Unified Prediction Portfolio is designed as a native system where everything is tokenized and risk-profiled together, allowing for more dynamic capital management.
Specifically, the system is designed to permit users to quote on price predictions and immediately hedge those positions using perpetual contracts, all within a single margin account. This integration of perpetuals and prediction markets within a single risk-profiled system is intended to provide traders with advanced tools for managing exposure. By allowing users to maintain other positions and deploy capital across the whole of Backpack without fragmenting balances, the platform seeks to minimize the opportunity costs associated with long-term capital lock-ups. This structural change could shift how users interact with prediction markets, moving them from isolated tools into integrated components of a broader, more efficient trading strategy.
Outlook
Looking forward, the development of the Unified Prediction Portfolio will follow a phased approach, starting with its current invite-only testing status. This initial stage is focused on verifying the functionality of the risk engine and the integrity of the unified portfolio system. Backpack plans to gradually expand this beta, incorporating additional features, diverse markets, and unique mechanisms that are only possible within a fully integrated trading system. The expansion will be measured, focusing on the stability of the platform’s core features before it is opened to a wider audience or includes more complex market types.
The broader environment for prediction markets remains fraught with regulatory and legal challenges that could impact Backpack’s trajectory. Polymarket is currently navigating scrutiny regarding insider trading and heightened attention from regulatory bodies. These challenges are not limited to a single jurisdiction; for example, Ukraine has recently blocked Polymarket and officially classified prediction markets as gambling. As Backpack continues to develop its platform, it must do so against a backdrop of increasing international regulatory pressure and growing uncertainty in the sector. The success of the venture will likely depend on how well it navigates these external pressures while scaling its unique integrated features.
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