Lede
Bitcoin experienced a 3.4% correction over the weekend as market participants reduced risk exposure in response to a complex macroeconomic backdrop. This downward price movement followed a failed attempt by the digital asset to sustain a breakout above the $98,000 level earlier in the week. The sudden retest of lower price levels caught many bullish traders off guard, resulting in the forceful liquidation of $215 million in leveraged BTC futures long positions. These liquidations added significant selling pressure to the market, fueling broader concerns that a more substantial price correction might be developing.
Institutional activity also showed signs of cooling, as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows totaling $395 million. This withdrawal of capital coincided with a period where gold reached new record highs, potentially weakening the appeal of Bitcoin as a primary hedge for some investors. Despite the negative price action and the failure to reclaim the $98,000 threshold, the BTC futures annualized premium, also known as the basis rate, held relatively steady near the 5% mark. This level indicates that while demand for leveraged bullish positions has not been completely erased, it remains in a neutral-to-bearish zone, lacking the strong conviction seen during previous market rallies.
Context
The broader financial environment is currently being shaped by significant geopolitical shifts and macroeconomic data. US President Donald Trump has introduced new import tariff proposals targeting eight European countries. These measures are reportedly intended to apply pressure during negotiations regarding the acquisition of Greenland, a territory under Danish control. This development has introduced fresh uncertainty into global markets, contributing to a 1.6% decline in the Euronext 100 Index. As traditional equities faced pressure, investors turned toward safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices above $4,650 for the first time in history. This surge in gold has provided a stark contrast to Bitcoin’s recent volatility, as the cryptocurrency continues to be viewed by many as a risk-on asset rather than a stable hedge.
In addition to trade tensions in the West, economic indicators from Asia have also weighed on investor sentiment. China reported its slowest economic growth since 2022, with its economy expanding by 4.5% year-over-year in the final quarter of 2025. This figure represents a deceleration from the 4.8% growth rate observed in the previous quarter. Analysts, including George Saravelos, who serves as the head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, have noted the potential long-term implications of these shifts. Saravelos pointed out that European countries hold approximately $8 trillion in US bonds and equities. If the western alliance experiences existential disruptions, the historical willingness of these nations to support the US dollar and its associated financial systems could be called into question.
Impact
The recent price volatility has led to a noticeable shift in professional trading behavior and on-chain network health. In the derivatives market, the BTC options delta skew at Deribit has jumped to 8%. Under neutral market conditions, this specific indicator typically ranges between -6% and +6%. The move to 8% suggests that put options—which provide protection against price declines—are now trading at a premium compared to call options. This change highlights that whales and professional traders are increasingly cautious, demanding higher premiums to hedge against the risk of further downside movement. This cautious stance has significantly reduced confidence in a near-term bullish breakout above the $100,000 psychological milestone.
Simultaneously, the Bitcoin network itself is showing signs of diminished activity. According to data from Nansen, daily active addresses on the blockchain have fallen to 370,800. This represents a 13% decline from the activity levels recorded just two weeks earlier. Healthy demand for the blockchain is considered essential for the long-term sustainability of the network, particularly for the mining sector. Currently, Bitcoin miner revenue is composed of a fixed block reward of 3.125 BTC plus the transaction fees paid by users. As active addresses and transaction volumes decrease, the portion of revenue derived from fees may become less predictable, potentially impacting the incentives that keep the network secure. The combination of a high options skew and declining on-chain metrics suggests that the current price levels are facing significant headwinds from both a technical and fundamental perspective.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the stability of the $92,000 price level remains a primary concern for market participants. The combination of weak BTC derivatives metrics and the general risk-off sentiment in global markets provides few immediate signals for a strong recovery. Investors are particularly wary of how the ongoing global economic slowdown and the specific trade policies of the Trump administration will continue to impact liquidity. The proposed tariffs and the focus on acquiring Greenland have introduced a layer of sociopolitical tension that traditional and digital markets are still struggling to price accurately. If these tensions lead to further disruptions in the western alliance, the resulting impact on capital flows could further disadvantage risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Furthermore, the performance of traditional hedges will likely continue to influence Bitcoin’s recovery prospects. As long as gold maintains its appeal by holding above the $4,650 level, Bitcoin may struggle to attract the “digital gold” narrative from institutional players, as evidenced by the $395 million in ETF outflows. The market will also be monitoring China’s economic trajectory, as the drop from 4.8% to 4.5% growth suggests a broader cooling that could reduce global risk appetite. Without a significant reversal in network activity—which has seen active addresses drop by 13%—or a shift in the 5% futures premium, the path toward $100,000 remains obstructed. Traders will need to see either a stabilization in macroeconomic tensions or a renewed surge in on-chain demand before the prevailing bearish sentiment in the options market begins to dissipate.
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