Lede
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a critical juncture that may define its trajectory through 2026, particularly if the year evolves into a classic bear market. According to recent analysis by Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, the cryptocurrency faces a “do-or-die” price point as it navigates shifting cycle dynamics. Timmer has identified $65,000 as a pivotal battleground for price support, representing a historical high that could serve as a line in the sand for the asset’s valuation. Should this level fail to hold, market participants may see a retest of a lower support line, which currently sits near the $45,000 mark.
This potential showdown comes amid a broader debate regarding the relevance of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year price cycles. While the asset has historically followed predictable patterns linked to halving events, Timmer suggests that the influence of these cycles may be diminishing over time. Nevertheless, the presence of bear markets remains a structural reality for Bitcoin. The analysis highlights that the $45,000 level aligns with the current power law trendline, a model that attempts to determine the “fair value” of the asset over long periods. As the market moves forward, the convergence of price action and these trendlines will likely dictate whether the current bull cycle can sustain its momentum or if a deeper correction is imminent.
Context
The historical framework of Bitcoin price action is undergoing significant scrutiny following a shift in market performance during 2025. Traditionally, the cryptocurrency has never concluded a post-halving year at a lower price point than where it started. However, because 2025 finished in the red, the Bitcoin community has engaged in a vigorous debate regarding the validity of the four-year cycle theory. This departure from historical norms has led some analysts to question whether the asset is entering a new regime or if the existing models require recalibration to account for a maturing market.
Executive David Eng has contributed to this discussion, noting that bear markets are likely to remain a permanent feature of Bitcoin’s lifecycle as it evolves into a more mature financial asset. Eng suggests that the market is now characterized by longer price cycles and a reduction in overall volatility compared to its earlier years. This perspective counters the idea that Bitcoin has transitioned into a “no-bear-market” regime. Instead, the asset appears to be following a trajectory that reflects its status as a scarce, fixed asset integrated within the global financial system. The ongoing relevance of these cycles suggests that while the intensity of price swings may be dampening, the fundamental mechanics of market contractions and expansions persist, requiring investors to remain cognizant of historical support levels like the power law trendline.
Impact
Despite the volatility and the debates surrounding market cycles, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable adherence to long-term valuation models. Analysis shows that the asset still obeys a single power law with extraordinary stability, maintaining an R² value of approximately 0.96 over more than 15 years of data. In this context, the dramatic price bubbles and subsequent crashes are viewed as mere oscillations around a central growth curve rather than fundamental regime changes. This stability suggests that the underlying growth trajectory of Bitcoin remains intact, even as short-term price action deviates from the trend.
David Eng posits that the current price action reflects a “compressed” state below the long-term growth law. According to this view, when Bitcoin’s price is coiling significantly below its fair value, history dictates that the tension is typically resolved through an upward relief rally rather than a breakdown of the model itself. Eng argues that Bitcoin is not stalling but rather preparing for a period where the price “catches up” to its historical power law targets. This “compression” suggests that the asset may be due for a significant rebound to align with its long-term growth law, providing a counter-narrative to the bearish sentiment that often accompanies retests of major support levels like the $65,000 mark.
Outlook
Looking toward 2026, the intersection of price action and mathematical trendlines will be a primary focus for market observers. If Bitcoin undergoes a period of consolidation over the next year, the power law trendline is expected to move closer to the $65,000 level. This convergence would transform that price point into a definitive “do-or-die” line for the asset. A successful defense of this level would likely validate the long-term power law model and reinforce the narrative of Bitcoin as a maturing asset with predictable, albeit lengthening, growth phases. Conversely, a drop toward the $45,000 support level would represent a significant retest of the asset’s historical floor.
The market’s ability to navigate these support zones will determine the future of the four-year cycle theory. As cycles potentially lengthen and volatility decreases, the distinction between “classic” bear markets and temporary oscillations may become increasingly blurred. Investors and analysts will be watching to see if the “compressed” readings identified by proponents of the power law result in the predicted upward resolution. As Bitcoin continues its adoption curve, the interplay between its fixed supply and its integration into traditional finance will likely provide the volatility necessary to keep bear markets a recurring, if evolving, reality of its market structure.
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