Lede
Bitcoin is currently positioned to potentially reclaim the $100,000 level as a primary support zone, with technical projections indicating a possible rally toward $107,000. This upward momentum follows the confirmed breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern that occurred earlier this week. Following the breach of the pattern’s upper boundary, the asset has transitioned into a retest phase, a move generally associated with valid breakouts rather than temporary price spikes.
Technical analysts derive the $107,000 price target by adding the maximum height of the original triangle formation to the specific breakout point. Based on this measured upside objective, the target could be reached by February. Supporting this bullish structure is the daily chart’s proximity to a bullish crossover between two key exponential moving averages (EMAs): the green 20-day EMA and the red 50-day EMA. Historical data suggests these crossovers are significant; the last time a similar bullish cross occurred, the price of Bitcoin advanced by approximately 17% during the following month. This convergence of technical signals suggests a strong trend continuation is underway as the market moves past recent consolidation.
Context
The credibility of the recent breakout is bolstered by a significant shift in the behavior of long-term market participants. Data focusing on Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) from “OG” Bitcoin holders—defined as those holding coins that have remained dormant for more than five years—shows that distribution into recent local price peaks has slowed materially. This fading selling pressure suggests that the oldest holders are opting to retain their positions rather than liquidate during the current price action.
Earlier in this rally, selling activity from these long-term holders had actually surged to levels well above those recorded in the previous bull market. This was largely attributed to high demand from spot ETFs and increased institutional participation providing a deep liquidity window for exits. However, as of January, this trend has shifted significantly. The 90-day average of spent outputs, which had previously peaked near 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle, has since declined toward the 1,000 BTC level. This reduction in coins hitting the market coincides with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges recorded since December 2024, further indicating a tightening of available supply and a prevailing trend of holding over distribution.
Impact
Macroeconomic indicators are further aligning with the bullish technical thesis, particularly when examining Bitcoin’s historical relationship with gold. In past instances where the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned negative, the digital asset has experienced substantial gains. On average, such periods of negative correlation have resulted in Bitcoin rallies of approximately 56% within a timeframe of roughly two months.
There is only one notable exception to this historical trend, which occurred in May 2021. During that period, the market was disrupted by severe exogenous shocks, including a significant mining crackdown in China and a period of forced deleveraging across the industry. Aside from that specific instance, the negative correlation signal has remained a reliable indicator of independent strength in the Bitcoin market. The current environment, marked by fading selling pressure and technical breakouts, mirrors previous cycles of outperformance. By maintaining the reclaimed support levels near $95,000 and the psychological $100,000 mark, the market preserves the structural integrity required to pursue the higher price objectives established by the recent ascending triangle breakout.
Outlook
The long-term outlook into 2026 appears favorable for Bitcoin, supported by shifting global economic conditions. A primary factor in this outlook is the rise in global liquidity combined with the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, creating a more accommodating environment for digital assets. Market participants are closely watching to see if Bitcoin can finalize its rally toward the $107,000 objective by February, as dictated by the multi-week ascending triangle’s height.
Key metrics to monitor include the continuation of the downward trend in spent outputs from long-term holders. Having already seen a decline from the 2,300 BTC peak toward the 1,000 BTC level as of January, any further reduction in distribution could squeeze available supply even further. Additionally, the confirmation of the bullish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs remains a critical short-term milestone. Given that previous occurrences led to 17% price advancements in the subsequent month, such a signal would provide further validation for the current upward trajectory. As exchange outflows remain at their highest levels since late 2024, the combination of technical breakouts and macro liquidity expansion continues to define the asset’s path forward.
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