Bitcoin recently experienced a 10% rally from its yearly opening price, which was situated near $87,500

Lede

Bitcoin recently experienced a 10% rally from its yearly opening price, which was situated near $87,500. Despite this upward momentum, the cryptocurrency has stalled just below significant resistance levels. Market analysts indicate that for Bitcoin to achieve a six-figure valuation, it must decisively overcome resistance at $98,000. This specific price point is viewed as a critical trigger for a broader rally toward the $100,000 milestone. The immediate bullish case for the digital asset is currently tied to its ability to crack through resistance at $98,300. This level corresponds with the short-term holder supply basis, representing the aggregate entry price for investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days.

Reclaiming this threshold is considered essential for restoring market confidence and ensuring the sustainability of the current price trend. According to technical assessments, maintaining a position above this cost basis allows recent buyers to remain in a profitable state, which historically transitions the market from corrective phases into more durable uptrends. Furthermore, the market is closely watching the daily order block situated between $90,000 and $92,000. Experts suggest that holding above this range would significantly strengthen the case for a sustained push above $100,000 before the conclusion of the current month. The upward trend remains the primary focus for market participants as they navigate these key supply levels and evaluate the potential for a breakout into new all-time highs.

Context

Since November 2025, Bitcoin price rebounds have faced repeated rejection within a specific supply zone ranging from $93,000 to $110,000. This area has acted as a persistent barrier to upward movement, often separating corrective market phases from more established bullish regimes. The short-term holder supply basis at $98,300 serves as a vital gauge for market confidence. This metric tracks the entry price of newer investors—those holding for under 155 days—and acts as a psychological and technical hurdle. Market participants are looking for signs that new demand is sufficient to absorb the overhead supply that has historically distributed into market strength.

Technical analysis suggests that the ability of the BTC/USD pair to reclaim and hold $98,000 is a prerequisite for moving into a six-figure price territory. Observations of market behavior indicate that the $90,000 to $92,000 daily order block is currently serving as a foundational support level. If Bitcoin can maintain its position above this block, the probability of reaching $100,000 by the end of the month increases. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, recently noted that the current trend remains upward and suggested that reaching the $100,000 mark could potentially occur within the current week. This sentiment reflects a growing optimism among analysts that the current price levels are building a base for the next significant move higher, provided that immediate resistance points are cleared through sustained buying pressure.

Impact

Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has shown significant signs of recovery, with these investment products recording inflows over three consecutive days. The total inflows for this period reached $1.7 billion, signaling a return of institutional and professional interest. On a single Wednesday, inflows hit $843.6 million, marking the highest level since October 7, 2025. This figure also represents the largest single-day inflow recorded in 2026. This surge in spot demand is a critical component of the bullish thesis for Bitcoin, as it indicates that buyers are once again absorbing available supply rather than distributing assets during periods of price strength.

The return of a buy-dominant regime in the spot market is being viewed as a constructive structural shift. Analysts observe that this demand is essential for overcoming the supply clusters that have previously capped price gains. When spot ETF demand persists, it creates a scenario where new supply being created is lower than the amount being purchased by these investment vehicles. This dynamic is central to the current market outlook, as consistent inflows provide the necessary liquidity to challenge upper resistance levels. The recent three-day streak of inflows suggests that the market is finding renewed momentum after a period of stalling below the $98,000 resistance mark. The scale of these inflows, particularly the record-setting Wednesday performance, highlights the impact of centralized investment products on the broader Bitcoin price discovery process and the potential for these products to drive a supply absorption phase.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has suggested that Bitcoin’s price could go parabolic if ETF demand remains consistent over the long term. Hougan draws a parallel between the current state of Bitcoin and the historical performance of gold. He noted that gold rallied by 65% after its available supply was absorbed by the market. A similar trajectory is envisioned for Bitcoin, particularly as ETFs continue to purchase more BTC than the network produces in new supply. This long-term absorption of supply is expected to eventually exhaust the selling pressure from market participants, leading to a potential surge in valuation if demand persists.

The immediate outlook hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its position above the $90,000 to $92,000 order block while attempting to clear the $98,000 resistance level. Michael van de Poppe has expressed the possibility of reaching the $100,000 milestone as early as this week, citing the prevailing upward trend. Should the asset successfully breach the immediate resistance at $98,300, it would likely signal the beginning of a more durable uptrend. Conversely, failure to overcome the supply zone between $93,000 and $110,000 could result in further consolidation. The market remains focused on whether spot demand and ETF inflows can maintain their current pace to provide the necessary support for a move into six-figure pricing. The comparison to gold’s 65% rally serves as a historical benchmark for how supply-demand imbalances can fundamentally shift price action in a scarce asset class over time.