Lede
Bitcoin’s on-chain environment has recently witnessed a significant increase in activity from its largest holders, as whale spending surged to approximately $286 million. According to recent data, this movement represents the largest spike in spending for this specific cohort since early November. This trend highlights a notable shift in the behavior of long-term participants, marking the strongest resurgence in old-coin activity observed since November 3, 2025. During that previous period in late 2025, the metric for old-coin spending spiked near $570 million, an event that notably coincided with a market correction for the digital asset.
The current spending level of $286 million, while lower than the peak seen in late 2025, suggests that dormant capital is once again becoming mobile. This resurgence in activity is being closely watched by market participants as it often signals a change in the supply-demand balance. Despite the increase in whale distribution, the market is also seeing massive inflows in other areas. Accumulator addresses, which are wallets known for consistently buying and holding without selling, have added nearly 136,000 BTC to their balances in just 11 days this month. This intense accumulation provides a significant counterweight to the $286 million in whale spending, indicating a period of high-volume transfer between different classes of holders within the network.
Context
To understand the current market dynamics, one must look at both corporate institutional activity and long-term historical price patterns. One of the most prominent institutional moves involves Strategy, which recently made its biggest Bitcoin purchase since July 2025. This transaction involved the addition of $1.25 billion in BTC to the entity’s holdings, reinforcing the trend of large-scale accumulation despite the localized increase in whale spending. This $1.25 billion purchase stands as a major liquidity event that contrasts with the $286 million in old-coin movement, suggesting that institutional appetite remains robust across the board.
In addition to corporate buying, historical technical patterns are playing a role in shaping expectations. Data indicates that for seven consecutive months, Bitcoin has averaged a 5% dip below its 14th weekly open candle. This consistent historical trend suggests that the market often undergoes a mid-month cooling period, which may explain the current price fluctuations near recent highs. By analyzing these seven months of data, observers can better project the likelihood of short-term pullbacks even in a generally bullish environment. The combination of historical 5% dips and the massive 136,000 BTC accumulation this month creates a complex backdrop where short-term technical weakness competes with long-term fundamental strength from both retail accumulators and institutional players like Strategy.
Impact
The immediate impact of these technical and on-chain factors is concentrated around specific price levels where liquidity is currently clustering. Market data shows that liquidity is particularly dense between the $89,200 and $89,700 price points. This clustering creates a critical pivot for the asset, as the price attempts to navigate the increased supply from whales. If the current demand from accumulator addresses fails to hold the price above these levels, the 5% average historical dip could briefly drag the price toward the $86,000 to $87,000 zone. This potential downward move is viewed as a possibility for the market to fill existing orders.
Furthermore, analysts suggest that a liquidity sweep below the $89,000 mark may be a required step before the market can establish a firm base for higher valuations. Such a sweep would effectively clear out leverage and allow the market to absorb the $286 million in whale spending more efficiently. If the price does not stabilize within the $86,000 to $87,000 range, the focus will likely shift to a longer-term target. Specifically, external liquidity is noted to be sitting near the $84,000 level. The movement toward these lower targets would depend on whether the $1.25 billion in institutional buying and the 136,000 BTC accumulated this month are enough to offset the old-coin resurgence.
Outlook
Looking ahead, the primary focus for the market will be the interaction between historical support zones and the $100,000 psychological milestone. A strong rebound from the $86,000 to $87,000 zone, or from a liquidity sweep below $89,000, would indicate that passive buy orders have been filled and the supply has been absorbed. Such a recovery would demonstrate significant market resilience, potentially opening the door to a test of the $100,000 level as early as next week. The speed of such a recovery would depend on the continued pace of accumulation, which has already seen nearly 136,000 BTC added to specific wallets in the first 11 days of this month.
The outlook remains tied to the market’s ability to digest the $286 million in whale spending that has recently entered the ecosystem. If the $100,000 test is successful, it would validate the current cycle of accumulation. However, if a strong rebound fails to materialize, the risk of a deeper pullback remains. In that case, the long-term target near $84,000 would become the primary area of interest for liquidity seekers. The coming week is expected to be decisive, as the market determines whether the resurgence in old-coin activity, the strongest since November 3, 2025, is a precursor to further growth or a signal for a more extended period of consolidation.
About the Author
