Lede
The Bitcoin network underwent its first difficulty adjustment of 2026 on Thursday, which resulted in the mining difficulty falling slightly to a level of 146.4 trillion. This adjustment serves as a critical recalibration for the protocol, which automatically updates approximately every two weeks to ensure the stability of block discovery. The difficulty level is a measure of how hard it is for miners to find the cryptographic solution required to add a new block to the blockchain. At the time of this writing, average block times have been recorded at 9.88 minutes, which is just below the network’s hard-coded 10-minute target. This suggests that the total computational power, or hashrate, currently securing the network is slightly higher than what is needed for the current difficulty setting.
Historically, mining difficulty reached several new all-time highs throughout 2025, reflecting a period of intense network growth and competition. Despite the recent slight decrease observed on Thursday, the current difficulty remains significant in the context of the network’s history. However, it is important to note that the current level of 146.4 trillion is still well below the all-time high of 155.9 trillion that was recorded in November. This Thursday update marks the beginning of a new cycle for the mining industry as it navigates the technical requirements of the protocol in the first weeks of the new year.
Context
To understand the current technical status of the Bitcoin network, it is necessary to examine the economic and operational challenges that defined the previous year. The mining sector experienced an exceptionally difficult environment in 2025, which many observers characterized as having the harshest profit margins on record. This was primarily a result of the April 2024 halving event, which slashed the block subsidy reward by 50%, immediately reducing the revenue available to all network participants. As the subsidy decreased, the competition for the remaining rewards grew more intense, leading mining difficulty to reach unprecedented all-time highs during 2025.
The pressure on the industry was compounded by a sharp crypto market downturn that began in the fourth quarter of 2025. A flash crash in October triggered a broader sell-off, resulting in BTC prices being discounted by more than 30% by November. During that month, the market value of Bitcoin hit a low just north of $80,000. While there has been some upward movement in price since that low point, the current market value remains far below the all-time high of over $125,000 that was achieved in October. For miners, this combination of a reduced block subsidy, high difficulty levels peaking at 155.9 trillion, and lower market prices created a significant squeeze on operations. The current difficulty of 146.4 trillion reflects a network that is still highly secure and competitive, even as participants recover from the volatility of the preceding months.
Impact
The intersection of high network difficulty and lower market prices has had a direct impact on the viability of mining hardware across the globe. A key metric for assessing this impact is the miner hash price, which quantifies the expected revenue a miner can earn per unit of computing power. In November 2025, this metric fell below the critical breakeven levels for many operators. Specifically, the hash price dropped below $35, which represented a multi-year low for the industry. This decline was particularly significant because $40 per petahash-second per day is generally regarded as the threshold at which miners must make the difficult decision to either continue mining blocks or turn off their rigs to avoid further losses.
The drop below $35 forced many participants to reconsider their operational sustainability. With the mining difficulty reaching as high as 155.9 trillion in November, the cost of the electricity and hardware required to mine remained high while the reward value plummeted. This forced a period of consolidation and strategic pivots within the sector. Even with the slight drop in difficulty to 146.4 trillion on Thursday, the industry remains in a precarious position. The legacy of the 2024 halving, combined with the profitability floor established by the $40 hash price benchmark, continues to dictate which mining operations can survive. Those with higher electricity costs or less efficient hardware have found it increasingly difficult to compete in a network where the difficulty remains near its historical peaks.
Outlook
Looking forward, the Bitcoin network is expected to continue its pattern of regular technical adjustments. The next difficulty recalibration is estimated to take place on January 22, 2026. Based on current network performance, analysts expect the difficulty to increase from its current level of 146.47 T to approximately 148.20 T. This projected increase is a direct response to the current average block times of 9.88 minutes; since blocks are being found faster than the 10-minute target, the protocol will automatically increase the difficulty to slow down block production.
The outlook for the mining industry in early 2026 depends heavily on whether market prices can recover toward the October highs of $125,000 or if they will remain closer to the $80,000 lows seen in November. While the network difficulty remains below its 155.9 trillion peak, any significant increase in hashrate will likely push the difficulty back toward those record levels.
- The January 22 adjustment is expected to raise difficulty to 148.20 T.
- Miners must monitor the 9.88-minute block time average for signs of increasing competition.
- Profitability remains tied to the hash price recovering above the $40 threshold.
As the network enters this next phase, the balance between total computational power and market price will determine the stability of the mining ecosystem. The estimated increase in the next adjustment cycle suggests that miners are continuing to deploy new hashrate, even in the face of the margin pressures that defined the end of 2025.
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